IMD update: Coastal AP, TN, Kerala brace for wet spell as new depression looms

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Rain, thunderstorms, high winds, lightning to spread out over adjoining Central, North-West and East India as cyclone Arnab remnant interacts with an incoming active western disturbance

By Vinson Kurian

Updated - October 29, 2026 at 05:20 PM.

An emerging wet spell (in blue shade) is forecast to unfold over South Peninsula even as a heavy rain wave (in orange) from a looming depression approaches south Andhra Pradesh coast by Saturday. | Photo Credit: www.windy.com

The South Peninsula is bracing for another wet spell early next week as a fresh low-pressure area over the south Andaman Sea is forecast to intensify into a depression over the south-east Bay of Bengal. India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam are in line for isolated very heavy rainfall on Monday and Tuesday and heavy on Sunday and Wednesday.

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands could receive heavy rain on Sunday as the developing system advances from the Andaman Sea. Isolated heavy rainfall over Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe, and south interior Karnataka on Monday and Tuesday. Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal are likely to receive isolated heavy rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam face a longer spell, with heavy rainfall forecast on Sunday and Wednesday and isolated very heavy rainfall on Monday and Tuesday.

Depression by Saturday

The fresh ‘low’ could strengthen into a depression over the south-east Bay and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by Saturday before moving closer to north Tamil Nadu and south Coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts. It would have time and space to intensify further, depending on the atmospheric and oceanic conditions it encounters.

Sea-surface temperatures around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the south-east Bay were close to 30°C on Thursday, providing a potentially favourable source of energy. However, the depression’s evolution would also depend on the behaviour of erstwhile very severe cyclone Arnab’s remnant over land that which weakened into a depression on Thursday, and their interaction with an incoming active western disturbance.

Not usual occurrence

It is an unusual sequence for a fresh depression to follow so closely on the heels of a very severe cyclone, whose passage and associated heavy rainfall would have brought some cooling to the ocean. The extent of any such cooling, and its implications for the new system, will be among the factors influencing its development.

The fresh wet spell across the South Peninsula and parts of Central, North-West and East India is expected to be driven by the interaction between the depression and an active western disturbance approaching from the west. The resulting weather could bring rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds across several regions through the weekend and into next week.

Incoming western disturbance

The western disturbance, located over north Pakistan with an upper-air trough ahead of it, is approaching west Rajasthan and could extend its influence as far south as Vapi in Gujarat. An induced upper-air cyclonic circulation lies over south Punjab, while another persists over south Konkan and the neighbourhood.

A trough extends from the circulation associated with Arnab’s remnants over south Chhattisgarh and adjoining south Odisha to the circulation over south Konkan, crossing Telangana and north interior Karnataka. This configuration is helping sustain the current rain-producing conditions across central and southern India.

Heavy spell for Bihar

The IMD has warned of isolated extremely heavy rainfall over north Bihar on Friday, even as the fresh low over the south Andaman Sea is expected to bring heavy rain to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Sunday. Isolated very heavy rainfall is also likely over the hills of West Bengal and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Friday.

Rainfall is expected to spread across the northern plains and adjoining regions. Isolated to scattered rain is forecast over Punjab and west Uttar Pradesh on Friday and Saturday, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi on Saturday, east Uttar Pradesh for four days from Saturday, West Rajasthan on Friday and east Rajasthan for three days from Friday. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over east Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi on Friday.

Odisha bears brunt

Meanwhile, Arnab remnant unleashed torrential rain over Odisha and Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on Wednesday, a day before the system weakened into a depression. Heavy to very heavy rainfall was reported from parts of Odisha and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, while heavy rain affected West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Telangana.

Odisha bore the brunt of the deluge. Patrapur in Ganjam district topped the rainfall charts with an exceptional 55 cm during the 24 hours ending on Thursday morning. Sorada followed with 50 cm, while G Udayagiri and Mahendragarh recorded 46 cm each. Sankheimundi received 39 cm, Raikia 38 cm, Chikiti 31 cm and Mohana 30 cm. Several other locations recorded 20 cm or more. In Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Ichchapuram recorded 24 cm and Sompeta 22 cm.

Positive IOD, MJO pulse

The ocean’s warmth is only part of the story. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) has emerged, strengthening the broader atmospheric signals over the Indian Ocean. Recent observations also point to an active Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal propagating across the basin. The MJO is a large-scale pulse of tropical cloudiness, rainfall and atmospheric circulation that travels eastwards around the equator. Its amplitude has increased, possibly reflecting constructive interference with the strengthening +IOD. Dynamical model forecasts suggest that the signal will persist and continue eastwards towards the eastern Indian Ocean over the next fortnight.

First manifestation

Enhanced easterly winds in the upper atmosphere may be influencing this slow evolution. Model projections also indicate the possibility of the signal returning to the western hemisphere before propagating into the Indian Ocean again during the third week of November. Arnab, which formed over the Bay on October 26, may have been the first major manifestation of a favourable phase for storm development. The fresh ‘low’ now emerging in its wake could provide the next test of how long these conditions persist.

Published on October 29, 2026

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